Description: Risk management techniques do not include system science. System science requires that the uncertainty of the world is incorporated into the results. The articles explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. Learn how risk practices create an overoptimistic view of future outcomes.

Description: Examines the link between population structure and asset values by generating returns on assets in the presence of demographic change using an OLG Model.

Description: A comprehensive literature review on demographics and asset returns plus model specifications relating to housing prices.

Description: A comprehensive literature review summarizing academic and other papers that draw a connection between population structure and asset class returns (or prices).

Description: A review of product and sales trends for variable, indexed and fixed annuities against the current backdrop of low interest rates and record equity market valuations

Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.

Description: Delinquency rates are closely related to the economic conditions and can be analyzed using measures of economic growth and stability. In an attempt to predict the delinquency rate for the health care equipment financial industry, we investigated the relationship between delinquency rate and key macroeconomic variables for the period from 1998 to 2008. The study reveals that the tightening credit standards and unemployment rate are the key macroeconomic indicators influencing the delinquency rate. The analysis further helps in arriving at a trigger to monitor the delinquency rate based on the macroeconomic indicators, thus enabling proactive portfolio management. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: This 1981 session on Fiscal and Monetary Policy dealt with questions of i. What are current U.S. and Canadian policies? 2. What is the outlook for fiscal policy in the U.S. and Canada? 3. What does current monetary policy imply for financial and credit markets and interest rates? 4. What political, social and economic changes must occur for nominal interest rates to begin steadily declining toward parity with real interest rates? From Record of Society of Actuaries, Vol. 7, No. 2.

Description: This session from the 1981 SOA Spring Meeting discusses how the insurance industry will fare under different economic conditions according to an economotric model by Data Resources - DRI. The session also reviews how to incorporate inflation into actuarial calculations and the prospects and possiblities regarding inflation. From Record of Society of Actuaries, Vol. 7, No. 2.

Description: Outlook for the dynamic economy is the keynote address at 1976 Spring Meeting covering short term economic outlook and characteristics of the US economic system in general.

Description: This panel discussion was presented at the SOA's 1976 Spring Meeting in Washington D.C. The discussion focuses on the economic outlook in 1976.

Description: This is article covers a session from the Annual Meeting about financial analysis and corporate strategy. It discusses: evaluation of external factors that affect the long-run outlook for the company, assessment of strategic opportunities and development of long-range action plans. 1975 Record Vol.1 No. 4

Description: This discussion at an SOA 1968 Regional Meeting is about currency devaluation in other countries and the effects it has on life insurance, pension funds and company operations in the U.S.

Description: This paper examines the development of inflation and the dilemma the life insurance business faces. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1958, Vol. 10, No. 28.